San Diego Housing Market Jan 2024 Update

Feb. 5, 2024
6 min read
Team skills.ai

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Executive summary

Median Listing Price Trends

  • San Diego's median listing price generally increased from February 2023 to August 2023, peaking at $1,099,450.
  • The most significant monthly increase was between March and April 2023. The largest monthly decrease was between September and October 2023.
  • Despite fluctuations, median listing prices in January 2024 were 4.83% higher than in February 2023, indicating growth in the housing market.

Inventory Turnover Speed

  • Fastest turnover was in May 2023, with properties taking a median of 30 days to sell.
  • There was a seasonal trend, with faster sales between February and September 2023.
  • The slowest turnover occurred in January 2024, taking a median of 43 days to sell.

Price Adjustment Patterns

  • A negative correlation between price changes and active listing count indicates that as prices increase, the number of active listings decreases, and vice versa.
  • The highest increase in median listing price was in April 2023, and the largest reduction in October 2023.
  • The active listing count shows a decreasing trend from January to April 2023, and an increasing trend from May to November 2023.

Market Saturation

  • There was an increase in competition from January to May 2023, with a decrease from June to December 2023.
  • The lowest level of competition was in December 2023, but the market started to recover in January 2024.

House Size Valuation

  • No strong correlation between the median square footage of houses and their median listing price per square foot was found.
  • House size does not consistently influence price per square foot, suggesting other factors may be determining price per square foot.

Pending Sales Dynamics

  • A strong positive correlation between the pending listing count and the pending ratio indicates high demand in the market.
  • A higher pending ratio could potentially translate into a rise in successful transactions, but other market factors might influence the final sales outcome.

About the data

Last 13 months of San Diego, California house inventory data. Source: realtor.com


Analytics

1. Median Listing Price Trends: Understand the monthly fluctuations in median listing prices for houses in San Diego over the past year.

  • Over the past year, San Diego's median listing price showed a general upward trend from February 2023 to August 2023, peaking at $1,099,450.
  • After reaching the peak, prices started to decline consistently until January 2024, when the median listing price was $977,000.
  • The most significant monthly increase occurred between March and April 2023, with a jump from $949,500 to $999,950.
  • The largest monthly decrease was between September and October 2023, when prices fell from $1,050,000 to $999,000.
  • Despite the fluctuations, median listing prices in January 2024 remained 4.83% higher than those in February 2023, indicating overall growth in the housing market.

2. Inventory Turnover Speed: Determine the speed at which inventory is sold by analyzing the median number of days a house stays on the market.

The data analysis reveals the following about the inventory turnover speed:

  • Fastest turnover was observed in May 2023, with a median of 30 days on the market.
  • There was a seasonal trend, with properties selling more quickly between February and September 2023.
  • The slowest turnover occurred in January 2024, taking a median of 43 days to sell.
  • There was a gradual increase in the median days on the market from October 2023, signalling a slower turnover rate.
  • Despite minor fluctuations, the overall trend suggested a relatively quick inventory turnover throughout the year.

3. Price Adjustment Patterns: Investigate the frequency and magnitude of price increases and reductions, and their effect on the active listing count.

  • There is an overall negative correlation of -0.200241 between price changes and active listing count, indicating that as prices increase, the number of active listings tends to decrease, and vice versa.
  • The highest increase in median listing price was observed in April 2023 with an increase of 10.86%, whereas the largest reduction was in October 2023 with a decrease of 4.95%.
  • The maximum active listings were seen in November 2023 (2929 listings), coinciding with a relatively smaller price decrease of 0.4%.
  • The frequency of price increases is generally higher than reductions, with the highest reduction frequency observed in September 2023 at 36.92%.
  • The active listing count shows a general decreasing trend from January to April 2023, and an increasing trend from May to November 2023, followed by a decrease in December 2023 and January 2024.

4. Market Saturation: Analyze the ratio of new listings to active listings to understand the level of competition in the San Diego housing market.

The analysis of the ratio of new listings to active listings in the San Diego housing market reveals several key points:

  • There was a consistent increase in the competition level from January to May 2023, with the ratio exceeding 1 in April and May.
  • A steady decrease is observed from June to December 2023, indicating a reduced influx of new listings.
  • The lowest level of competition is seen in December 2023 with a ratio of 0.47499, suggesting a significant drop in new listings.
  • The market starts to recover in January 2024, with the ratio rising to 0.865416.

These patterns suggest a cyclical nature of the housing market, with peaks in competition during spring and declines during late fall and winter.

5. House Size Valuation: Examine the relationship between the median square footage of houses and their corresponding median listing price per square foot to determine the value placed on size in this market.

The data analysis reveals a few key insights into the relationship between house size and listing price per square foot:

  • There is no strong correlation between the median square footage of houses and their median listing price per square foot. House size does not consistently influence price per square foot.
  • Some larger houses (over 1800 square feet) have lower median prices per square foot than smaller houses (around 1600 square feet).
  • The highest price per square foot is found in a house with a medium size (1640 square feet), not the largest house.
  • There are also cases where houses of similar sizes have quite different prices per square foot (e.g., 1686 and 1690 square feet).
  • This suggests other factors may be at play in determining price per square foot, beyond just house size.

6. Pending Sales Dynamics: Investigate the correlation between the pending listing count and the pending ratio to get insight into the demand and potential future sales.

The analysis reveals a strong positive correlation between the pending listing count and the pending ratio, as evidenced by a correlation coefficient of 0.921954.

  • This suggests that as the number of pending listings increases, the pending ratio also typically rises.
  • It indicates a high demand in the market, as a larger quantity of listings are moving into the pending stage.
  • In terms of future sales, a higher pending ratio could potentially translate into a rise in successful transactions.
  • However, it's essential to consider other market factors that might influence the final sales outcome.
  • Additionally, a high pending ratio for a prolonged period might indicate a slower sales process.

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